How to Trade a September Fed Rate Cut with ZN, ZB, and Micro Treasury Yields

Markets have largely priced a September cut, with most estimates centering on a 25 bp move and a smaller probability of 50 bp, which can drive Treasury prices up and yields down into and after the event.

Positioning and expectations matter: surprises versus what is priced tend to move bonds most on decision day. 


Recent inflation and producer price data have supported the easing narrative, increasing odds of sequential cuts into year-end. Still, path dependency remains, so risk management around the announcement and press conference is critical.

Products to use

ZN: 10-Year T‑Note futures: a benchmark for intermediate rates and highly liquid around FOMC events.

ZB: 30-Year T‑Bond future: more duration sensitive and typically more volatile on policy surprises.

Micro Treasury Yield futures: quoted directly in yield for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y, with smaller size and simpler yield expression.

Core relationships

If the Fed cuts and guidance is dovish versus expectations, Treasury prices often rise while yields fall; ZN and ZB would typically rally, while yield-quoted micros would fall.

If the Fed underdelivers versus what is priced, prices can fall and yields rise; ZN and ZB would typically sell off, while micro yield futures would rise.

Trade frameworks

Into the meeting: Consider defined-risk longs in ZN or ZB if the cut looks increasingly likely and data reinforce a dovish tilt, recognizing gap risk and headline sensitivity.

Event-driven: React to the statement and dots; a dovish surprise favors adding to ZB for duration exposure, while a hawkish tilt suggests shifting to micro 10Y yield longs for a cleaner yield-up expression.

Concrete examples

ZN price long: Buy ZN on confirmation of a 25 bp cut with dovish language. Manage with a stop below a pre-FOMC swing low and scale out at prior resistance. This targets price upside if yields drift lower post-statement.

ZB momentum add: If the dots or guidance imply additional easing, add a smaller ZB position to amplify duration. Use tighter trailing stops due to higher volatility beta.

Micro 10Y yield short: If expressing “yields down,” short the 10Y Micro Treasury Yield future so PnL tracks yield declines directly, with sizing flexibility.

Micro 30Y yield curve tilt: If expecting a bull steepener post-cut, go long 30Y micro yield and short 10Y micro yield to position for long-end underperformance. If expecting a bull flattener, invert that pair.

Sizing and margins

Micro Treasury Yield futures allow granular sizing at roughly 1/10th of standard Treasury futures, helpful for risk-tuning around high-vol events. Check live margin requirements and size positions so a 5–10 bp adverse move is tolerable within risk limits. 


Standard ZN and ZB require larger margin and can move quickly on FOMC headlines; plan entries with brackets and alerts, and consider partial fills around auctions and press conferences.

Risk controls

Define exits: Pre-set stops and take-profits before the announcement; avoid moving stops wider during whipsaws.

Beware path dependency: Statement, SEP/dot plot, and press Q&A can produce multi-phase moves; avoid over-sizing ahead of the second phase.

Liquidity windows: Depth can thin at the release; use limit orders when possible and avoid chasing through air pockets.

With Ironbeam

Ironbeam provides access to ZN, ZB, and Micro Treasury Yield futures with day-trade margining, depth-of-market, and chart trading across desktop, web, and mobile, plus educational resources on micro rates products.

Level 2 data and alerts can help execute the playbook around the FOMC.

For direct yield exposure, see Ironbeam’s micro rates resources, including contract specs for micro 10Y and 30Y yield futures, and refer to the Ironbeam platform before placing orders.